Early look on final 2025 market numbers

            A quick read on where 2025 will end before I review final numbers in early 2026.

            Available inventory up 15% compared to this time last year. Under Contract numbers down almost 17% compared to this time last year which will likely result in a slow start to 2026. The sales numbers are still too close to call, currently up less than a percent compared to last year and whether we beat the 2024 numbers will come down to closings in the last days of the year.  

We have defined the floor in the below chart of Boulder County Sales Volume and Sales Units over the last 3 years. While 2024 and 2025 show improvement off the rebound point, it has been minor. Also striking how close the 2025 YTD numbers are to the 2024 numbers. Only 7 closings different when I pulled this data on Dec. 23rd.   

I recently had lunch with another stat watcher and we discussed the 2026 outlook for the Boulder County market. Neither of us saw much on the horizon that would generate significant change in our market and agreed there were greater odds for a downside change rather than an upside breakout. The one chance of an accelerating market in 2026, in my opinion, would be driven by much lower mortgage rates that somehow aren’t driven by a worsening economic outlook. The downside risks remain very similar to last year’s outlook, uncertainty that has held many markets player in place, whether that be mortgage rate uncertainty, national economic uncertainty, and/or uncertainty over the continued changes to the overall real estate industry itself.  As always, the market data will show us the way!

Hope everyone had a wonderful, relaxing and restorative holiday season. I’ll start reviewing final 2025 numbers for the first several articles of 2026!