Uncategorized Q3 FHFA data shows changing Boulder Market The latest FHFA Q3 data is out for Boulder County and it tells the story of a changing, cooling market. For the first time since the second quarter of 2012, the Boulder County MSA saw negative appreciation from one quarter to the next logging a negative .58% appreciation rate from the second quarter to the […]
Uncategorized Market continues to change The shift in the market seems to be coming clearer as we move into the fall. Homes are taking longer to go under contract and inventory is building faster than sales. The shift is still patchy however in that certain areas and price points are still very active. I’ve even seen this patchiness within neighborhoods […]
Uncategorized Latest FHFA House Price Index Numbers are in! The latest FHFA House Price Index data came out for the Second Quarter of 2017 and I thought I’d spend some time on those stats.  You’ll see in the chart below that Boulder County MSA, the metro Denver MSA and the State of Colorado are all off their peaks in appreciation as our current cycle […]
Uncategorized Great new metric??? Sometimes I have a great idea for a new statistical chart after a conversation with a colleague.  After a conversation with John Hampshire at my office, I decided to see if I could chart the Sales Price to List Price ratio for real estate sales in Boulder County over the last 6 years.  The expectation […]
Uncategorized % Under Contract Showing Changes. Many of the brokers that I chat with about stats are commenting on how they feel a change taking place in the market.  This change isn’t uniform across Boulder County yet, but I suspect by the end of this year, we’ll all agree the days of instant offers and annual appreciation in the teens will […]
Uncategorized Inventory starting to climb? One of the signs I’ve been watching for that could indicate our market is changing is an increase in available inventory. As you can see in the chart below, we’re starting to see that increase. 2017 is the first year in which we have not set new lows in the number of homes available for […]
Uncategorized Boulder assessment valuations up 28-30% I was recently at a meeting with the Boulder County Assessor and this year’s property re-appraisal cycle is going to be very interesting.  The Boulder Assessor is forecasting that single family residential values will jump 28-30% since the last re-appraisal May 1, 2015.  The change for attached homes will be even greater.  Many homeowners out […]
Uncategorized 2016 Million Dollar plus market – Sales Price to List Price Last month we talked about the Sales Price to List Price ratios for properties that sold in 2016. This month I wanted to take a look at that same statistic but just for properties that sold for over a million dollars after concessions were removed from the sales price. In 2016, 412 properties met this […]
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Uncategorized 2016 Sales Price to List Price Ratios At the start of each year, I’m always analyzing the sold data from the previous year and this month I wanted to take a look at the sales price to list price ratios of all the 2016 sold properties. Last year I originally ran this analysis without removing seller concessions from the sales prices. This […]
Uncategorized 2016 Market Review As is typical at the start of every year, we look back at what happened in the previous year and attempt to sift the tea leaves into some meaningful patterns to help determine where we’re headed. As with any time you’re trying to interpret data sets, different people can see different patterns, but this is […]
Uncategorized FHFA Index updates I recently updated the FHFA stats for Boulder County and updated my chart of the appreciation of a $65,000 home in Boulder County from 1978 to the 3rd Quarter of 2016. After some further digging on the FHFA site, I was also able to add lines showing how that same 1978 $65,000 home would have […]
Uncategorized 2016 year end stats coming into focus As we get closer to the holidays and the end of the year, it’s safe to start making some assumptions about how the 2016 numbers are going to play out for the Boulder County market. The big story that we’ve seen this year is that we’ve had fewer sales of both single family homes and […]
Uncategorized Latest FHFA Home Price Index update We’ve talked about the FHFA HPI index before. To me, this is the best home values index to watch as it compares the value of the same home as the value changes over time as reported in sale and refinance appraisals, comparing apples to apples. Here are some significant findings from the most recent HPI […]
Uncategorized Mid-Summer Slump                Lately, at the start of August I always wonder if the market is slowing or if the recent weakness I’ve felt is just due to a mid-summer slump. For the third summer in a row, Mid-June through July has felt slow to me and to many of the other brokers I’ve spoken to. I’ve […]
Uncategorized Appreciation by Zip Code             We’ve discussed before the FHFA HPI index that tracks quarterly price changes for homes across the country. This index is available for the entire country, 4 large national regions, individual states and 382 MSA’s on a quarterly basis.  FHFA has just released a new experimental index that uses the same paired home sale methodology […]
Uncategorized Annualized appreciation for Boulder County                Last month we talked about how Boulder County has appreciated over time since 1978 based on the data from the Federal Housing Finance Authority. One of the follow-up questions I got from that article intrigued me. The question asked what the average annual appreciation rate was for Boulder County? Knowing this number would be […]
Uncategorized Boulder County Historical Appreciation                We all know the market is hot right now, but what do we do with that knowledge?  How do we advise our buyers and sellers?  These questions were raised at a recent office meeting and I found some interesting trends in the data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Home Purchase Index (HPI) […]
Uncategorized Sales Price to List Price Ratio revisit                Last month we looked at the sales price to list price ratios for sales in Boulder County going back over the last 5 years.  I had some caveats in the data and a couple of people asked me some questions on ways to massage the data which led to this month’s second review.                […]
Uncategorized Over asking price offers                I recently decided to look at the sales price to list price ratios for sales in Boulder County going back over the last 5 years. I know the market has changed dramatically in that time and I wanted to see how much the ratios have changed. The data is very impressive and I’ve tried […]
Uncategorized Buildable lot supply in Boulder County At a recent real estate conference I attended, I heard John Covert from Metrostudy speak and it was fantastic.  Metrostudy deeply analyzes the homebuilding industry and some of their data is very interesting and can be used to forecast the contribution of soon to be built single family homes to the tight supply we’re experiencing […]