Last month I expressed my uncertainty about many aspects of our current market. One thing I am fairly certain about, we will have fewer sales this year than 2022 which was itself a low sales year.
The scale of the drop in sales is stunning when you realize we had fewer sales last year than we did during the depths of the Great Recession. Sales volumes is the lifeblood of the entire industry and low sales volume effects everyone: Realtors, lenders, title companies, home inspectors, contractors, appraisers, etc. In my conversations with many partners around the industry, what I’m hearing is that most people are slow but there are the exceptions, people who are having very solid years.
Some charts to show the slow sales pace. This first one compares this year to last year and the five-year average with this June being down 18.11% compared to last June and 39.65% compared to the five-year average. You can also see this year’s line of sales to date has tracked below last year and the five-year average. It’s possible we may see a month or two touch last year’s monthly sales pace, but I doubt we’ll make up enough ground for the year-end numbers to beat last year’s.
These next two charts show the annual sales numbers in two different ways. The first shows the annual sales by month and the second shows the annual cumulative totals. I’ve drawn lines onto these charts showing the bottom in sales during the Great Recession to show how last year and this year compare.
It will be very interesting to watch and see how the sales come in during the last 5 months of the year. Will we fall further behind, will we catch up or will we somehow accelerate and outperform the current trends? We’ll be watching.
Hope everyone enjoys the last bits of summer.