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FHFA’s HPI index is our best source for overall market appreciation data. The dilemma, the data is very delayed. We now finally have Q4 2022 data, although it would include some sales that went under contract in Sept. 2022. So, we can use this data to see where we’ve been, but the data to show the most recent changes to the market really won’t show up until this summer. So, with those caveats, here is the Q4 FHFA HPI Data.
From the most recent HPI report– U.S. house prices rose 8.4 percent between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 0.3 percent compared to the third quarter of 2022. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was down 0.1 percent from November.
“House price appreciation continued to wane in the fourth quarter” said Dr. Polkovnichenko, Supervisory Economist in FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “House prices grew at a much slower pace in recent quarters amid higher mortgage rates and a decline in mortgage applications. These negative pressures were partially offset by historically low inventory.”
Significant Findings
- Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
- House prices rose in all 50 states, while prices declined in the District of Columbia between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. The five areas with the highest annual appreciation were 1) Florida, 15.2 percent; 2) North Carolina, 13.4 percent; 3) South Carolina, 12.9 percent; 4) Hawaii, 12.8 percent; and 5) Maine, 12.2 percent. The areas showing the lowest annual appreciation were 1) District of Columbia, -0.8 percent; 2) California, 2.3 percent; 3) Idaho, 3.1 percent; 4) Oregon, 3.6 percent; and 5) Washington, 3.7 percent.
- House prices rose in all but six of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. The annual price increase was greatest in North Port-Sarasota Bradenton, FL at 20.1 percent. The metropolitan area that experienced the greatest price decline was Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore, CA (MSAD) at -4.3 percent.
- Of the nine census divisions, the South Atlantic division recorded the strongest four quarter appreciation, posting a 12.4 percent increase between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022. Appreciation was weakest in the Pacific division, where prices rose by 2.9 percent.
Trends in the Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are available in our interactive dashboard: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/FHFA-HPI-Top-100-Metro-Area-Rankings.aspx. The first tab displays rankings while the second tab offers charts.
Here’s a look at how these numbers played out for the MSA’s in Colorado compared to the 258 other MSA’s across the country (that made this report) and how Colorado compared to the other states plus the District of Columbia. Boulder County remains in 4th place for appreciation since 1991 across the entire country, but has slipped in the other standings as other areas of the country have seen greater short term appreciation. The chart below is sorted by the 1 year appreciation rankings. Unusual to see Pueblo leading the state and how differently they are performing than the Springs!
Here is a graph comparing the annual appreciation rates for the Boulder MSA (all of Boulder County), the Denver MSA (the City and County of Denver, Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Adams County, Douglas County, the City and County of Broomfield, Elbert County, Park County, Clear Creek County, and Gilpin County) and the US. Another chart that shows the dramatic reversal in our market mid spring last year. Once we get 2023 data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pause in this drop based on the feel so far of the spring 2023 market.
The national map, color coded by appreciation over the preceding 12 months.
It will be very interesting to revisit the FHFA HPI stats later this year. The Spring market remains active for many, yet also slow for last year’s holdovers. It seems like activity accelerates and decelerates based on the latest twitches in the mortgage rates. Many of us are waiting to see what happens once we get through the typical stronger spring and into the typically slower summer months. Enjoy, hopefully, the last signs of winter!
