2021 Sales Price to List Price Ratios for Boulder County

This should be the last of my slightly delayed looks at the 2021 market numbers. Here I’ll be looking at the percentage of homes selling for asking price or better and how that metric has trended over time. The data I used for this chart has had any sales concessions deducted from the sales price and is for the ratio of last listed MLS price to sales price, IRES only data for Boulder County. Original listed price is not a downloadable field from IRES and there’s too much data to try and hand scrub through it all and find original listed prices, so I’m stuck using last MLS asking price.

The Boulder County market apparently hasn’t noticed that we remain in the midst of a global pandemic and the strength of the 2021 rebound in this metric is stunning. Of course, any local buyers and their agents are all woefully familiar with this phenomenon. For an annual average of 67.8% of all Single Family properties to sell for over asking price is stunning and higher than we’ve seen since I began tracking this metric back in 1997. Also interesting, for the first time, more Single Family homes are selling for over asking price than Attached homes.

When I pull this over asking price data, I look at the sales price to asking price ratios and how those ratios change depending on how quickly the home goes under contract. As you would expect, the more quickly the home goes under contract, the more likely the sales price was at or over the asking price. The 2021 Single Family numbers were substantially stronger than the 2020 numbers, with almost 62% of the homes going under contract in the 1^st week and more homes selling at greater premiums over asking price. Almost 87% of the Single Family homes that went under contract during their first week on the market ended up selling for over the asking price. The over asking price numbers were so strong that I needed to create a new table to show the strength for over 105% over asking price sales.

2021 Single Family Homes	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6+
% of all Sales	61.92%	11.32%	6.43%	4.46%	2.68%	13.20%

Asking or better	86.84%	51.36%	42.58%	40.69%	29.89%	41.96%

<80% – 95%	1.94%	7.34%	13.88%	10.34%	18.39%	29.84%
95% – 97%	1.79%	8.42%	10.53%	15.86%	22.99%	19.11%
97% – 99%	4.07%	20.92%	22.49%	22.07%	19.54%	19.81%
99% – 100%	5.37%	11.96%	10.53%	11.03%	9.20%	9.09%
100% – 102%	23.89%	27.99%	27.27%	27.59%	21.84%	16.08%
102% – 105%	16.74%	7.61%	9.57%	5.52%	3.45%	3.73%
>105%	46.20%	15.76%	5.74%	7.59%	4.60%	2.33%

100% – 105%	40.64%	35.60%	36.84%	33.10%	25.29%	19.81%
105% – 110%	21.61%	7.88%	4.31%	5.52%	2.30%	1.63%
110% – 115%	14.46%	5.16%	0.96%	0.69%	1.15%	0.23%
115% – 120%	6.01%	1.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.23%
120% – 125%	2.98%	0.82%	0.48%	0.69%	1.15%	0.00%
125% – 130%	0.65%	0.00%	0.00%	0.69%	0.00%	0.00%
130% – 135%	0.25%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
>135%	0.25%	0.27%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.23%

I also take this same data and plot it in separate colors denoting the week in which the property went under contract. This was another chart that had such strength that I had to change the scale on the horizontal axis. I used to end this chart at 120% or greater over asking price but I was getting a misleading spike there with my old axis. Now I go out to 135% or greater over asking. The blue spike has lost much of its height compared to 2021, but has made up for it with much more mass to the right with solid sales numbers, over 50 sales, all the way out to 113% over asking price. Also amazing, no matter what week the home went under contract, the most common outcome was an at asking price sale. In prior years, in weeks 2 and beyond we would see the largest number of sales in the below asking price range.

Now, let’s look at these same stats for Attached Homes. Just a touch softer than the Single Family home data, but a very strong year with almost half of the Attached Homes going under contract in the first week and of those homes, almost 84% selling for asking price or better. The strength over asking price didn’t extend as far above asking price as it did for Single Family homes though and I probably could have kept my original horizontal scale and ended the table and chart at 120% or greater over asking price.

2021 Attached Homes	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6+
% of all Sales	49.75%	11.61%	6.86%	4.39%	5.02%	22.36%

Asking or better	83.93%	57.93%	46.39%	37.10%	47.89%	38.61%

<80% – 95%	0.28%	2.44%	4.12%	3.23%	1.41%	6.96%
95% – 97%	1.14%	5.49%	0.00%	11.29%	5.63%	9.49%
97% – 99%	3.27%	10.98%	14.43%	20.97%	21.13%	21.20%
99% – 100%	4.84%	12.20%	24.74%	14.52%	16.90%	13.92%
100% – 102%	35.56%	43.29%	38.14%	29.03%	42.25%	39.56%
102% – 105%	26.03%	11.59%	10.31%	16.13%	5.63%	5.70%
>105%	28.88%	14.02%	8.25%	4.84%	7.04%	3.16%
100% – 105%	61.59%	54.88%	48.45%	45.16%	47.89%	45.25%
105% – 110%	18.78%	10.37%	3.09%	1.61%	2.82%	1.58%
110% – 115%	7.11%	1.83%	4.12%	0.00%	2.82%	1.58%
115% – 120%	2.13%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
120% – 125%	0.43%	1.83%	1.03%	1.61%	1.41%	0.00%
125% – 130%	0.28%	0.00%	0.00%	1.61%	0.00%	0.00%
130% – 135%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
>135%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Here again is the plot of the above data. The blue spike in the 1^st week being more dominant and extending further to the right than the 2020 chart. Same pattern as in the Single Family chart, the highest number of sales in every week was at asking price.

While the strength of the 2021 market was stunning, the strength we’ve been experiencing so far in 2022 is even more surprising with the locally impactful Marshall Fire, rising interest rates and a Russian war further disrupting international markets and supply chains. Someday, hopefully soon, I want to be writing about a boring market! Be well everyone.

Mike Malec – RE/MAX of Boulder, Inc. – 303-588-5716