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This should be the last of my 2020 market review articles where I look at the percentage of homes selling for asking price or better and how that metric has trended over time. The data I used for this chart has had any sales concessions deducted from the sales price and is for the ratio of last listed MLS price to sales price, IRES only data for Boulder County. Original listed price is not a downloadable field from IRES and with over 5,200 sales in Boulder County in 2020, that’s too much data to try and hand scrub through it all and find original listed prices so I’m stuck using last MLS asking price.
I remain amazed that COVID reversed the trendlines in many of our charts and that reversal was a positive for price appreciation and not a negative. As you can see below, 2020 numbers are up sharply and if the 2021 market remains as strong as it has been through the first two months, I’d expect this metric to continue its upward trend. As for the 2020 numbers, 42.95% of single family homes and 41.12% of attached homes sold for asking price or better last year.
When I pull this data, I look at the sales price to asking price ratios and how those ratios change depending on how quickly the home goes under contract. As you would expect, the more quickly the home goes under contract, the more likely the sales price was to be at or over the asking price. The 2020 numbers were stronger than the 2019 numbers, with more homes going under contract in the 1st week and more homes selling at greater premiums over asking price. The number selling for greater than 5% over asking price almost doubled the rate during 2019, again, the paradoxically strong COVID market.
| 2020 Single Family Homes | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6+ |
| % of all Sales | 44.65% | 11.22% | 7.55% | 5.96% | 4.60% | 26.02% |
| Asking or better | 67.83% | 32.68% | 30.43% | 26.15% | 21.43% | 15.88% |
| <80% – 95% | 2.45% | 8.29% | 7.61% | 14.22% | 16.07% | 21.87% |
| 95% – 97% | 3.68% | 10.00% | 13.41% | 8.72% | 14.29% | 17.88% |
| 97% – 99% | 11.89% | 31.46% | 33.33% | 34.40% | 35.71% | 31.44% |
| 99% – 100% | 14.15% | 17.56% | 15.22% | 16.51% | 12.50% | 12.93% |
| 100% – 102% | 39.03% | 23.66% | 25.72% | 22.94% | 17.86% | 13.88% |
| 102% – 105% | 18.75% | 5.37% | 2.17% | 1.38% | 1.19% | 1.37% |
| >105% | 10.05% | 3.66% | 2.54% | 1.83% | 2.38% | 0.63% |
I also take this same data and plot it in separate colors denoting the week in which the property went under contract. Compared to 2019, the blue spike of the 1st week sales has grown. With the buyers now accustomed to the need to act quickly, we’re not seeing as much strength in the 2nd week and I wonder if by the 3rd week we’re starting to see some price change effects. Also interesting, how few sales have very large discounts. Sellers rarely taking low offers and instead working their way down to market value with price reductions and then selling for somewhat close to their asking price.
Now, let’s look at these same stats for Attached Homes. Most of us have felt the Attached market cooling which has some confirmation in the numbers, but not as much as I expected. As in 2019, the highest percentage of attached homes go under contract in the 6th Week and on, although the performance in the 1st week was up from 28.29% in the previous year.
| 2020 Attached Homes | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6+ |
| % of all Sales | 32.13% | 12.97% | 7.78% | 7.20% | 7.13% | 32.78% |
| Asking or better | 62.56% | 28.33% | 30.56% | 23.00% | 46.46% | 30.33% |
| <80% – 95% | 1.12% | 5.00% | 5.56% | 11.00% | 2.02% | 7.69% |
| 95% – 97% | 4.48% | 11.11% | 11.11% | 11.00% | 11.11% | 15.16% |
| 97% – 99% | 16.37% | 36.11% | 35.19% | 41.00% | 29.29% | 35.16% |
| 99% – 100% | 15.47% | 19.44% | 17.59% | 14.00% | 11.11% | 11.65% |
| 100% – 102% | 50.00% | 24.44% | 25.93% | 22.00% | 42.42% | 26.37% |
| 102% – 105% | 9.19% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 1.00% | 1.01% | 2.20% |
| >105% | 3.36% | 1.11% | 1.85% | 0.00% | 3.03% | 1.76% |
Here again is the plot of the above data. The blue spike in the 1st week being more dominant than last year.
While the strength of the 2020 market during a global pandemic was surprising, the strength we’ve been experiencing so far in 2021 is, perhaps, even more surprising. Many of our traditional seasonal patterns still feel disrupted by COVID, its financial effects, and the changes to the daily pattern of life for so many people. Hopefully, later this year, when everyone who wants a vaccine will have received one, greater predictability based on past patterns will return to our market. Be well!
