Uncategorized September 8, 2020

Second Quarter FHFA HPI update

I thought I’d take a break from COVID this month and look at the FHFA HPI data for the Second Quarter of 2020. This is the most recent dataset which was just released and probably has some COVID effect in the numbers but not the full extent of the COVID downturn or resurgence. I find the FHFA HPI numbers to be the best large-scale indicator of overall market appreciation. To recap, the reason I like the FHFA data so much is that they use paired transactions to derive their numbers. They are always comparing multiple sales of the same house over time, not using averages, medians or some other broader market measure. https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx

Here is how our local area has fared. You can see that our local MSA’s have been underperforming the rest of the nation in the short term but far outpacing the nation in the longer term. Of the 244 MSA’s in the dataset, the Boulder MSA still ranks #1 for appreciation since 1991 but is almost at the bottom of the rankings for one quarter appreciation with a negative 0.43% drop.

 Q2 2020 1 Quarter 1 Year 5 Year Since 1991
Boulder (0.43%) – 226th 1.55% – 224th 42.34% – 41st 425.84% – 1st
Denver 0.85% – 107th 3.21% – 169th 46.02% – 26th 394.17% – 2nd
Ft. Collins 0.86% – 105th 3.08% – 175th 44.44% – 35th 360.51% – 8th
Greeley 0.55% – 147th 3.29% – 159th 50.87% – 16th 321.78% – 11th
Colorado (0.49%) – 47th 4.43% – 35th 45.98% – 4th 399.09% – 2nd

               Here’s the performance for the Denver MSA, Boulder MSA and overall US graphically. You can see that the Boulder and Denver MSAs have been decelerating in their appreciation rates since hitting their peak at the start of 2016. Annual appreciation decelerating, but still positive for both MSAs. As a reminder, the Boulder MSA is composed of all of Boulder County while the Denver MSA is composed of the 10 Metro Counties: the City and County of Denver, Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Adams County, Douglas County, the City and County of Broomfield, Elbert County, Park County, Clear Creek County, and Gilpin County.

               Lastly, I have a map of the entire US showing the appreciation for every state. Idaho leads the way with 10.8% appreciation over the last 12 months and W. Virginia and N. Dakota tie for the bottom at 1.1%. Strength across the map with every state showing positive appreciation.

We’ll be watching this index and our other metrics to continue to analyze how COVID is affecting the market. Hope everyone has a great end to their summer. Be well!