Buyer Demand versus Seller Desire

I think many of us are surprised by the strength in the local market during this time of COVID. I know I keep sifting and analyzing the tea leaves of the numbers trying to determine the direction we’re headed. Recently, I decided to take a look back over the last year and compare the number of new listings entering our market versus the number of homes going under contract. These metrics are proxies for the number of active sellers and active buyers. If those two numbers were to head in opposite directions, that would portend big changes for our market. If those two numbers were to generally track together, that would portend the continuation of the status quo.

As part of this look back, I struggled to re-create the timeline of COVID restrictions on our ability to show homes so that I could mark that onto the chart.  To the best of my recollection, this was how it played out.

March 10^th – Colorado state of emergency declared

March 13^th – National state of emergency declared

March 25^th – Statewide Stay-at-Home order – we thought showings allowed

April 6^th – Real Estate Showings officially clarified as not allowed

April 27^th – Safer-at-Home enacted statewide – Boulder County continues Stay-at-Home orders

April 29^th – Boulder County vacant home showings allowed

May 9^th – Boulder County In-Person showings allowed

Once I created this chart, I was comforted by how closely the seller and buyer activity was tracking together. Slight seasonal differences, where we see more sellers relative to buyers during the -summer and more buyers relative to sellers over the winter, but overall, remarkably similar tracks. It was especially interesting to see buyers and sellers both react to COVID restrictions similarly on the way down and the way back up. Most importantly, so far, the numbers are tracking together nicely which implies we’re continuing with the status quo, which so far, is a fairly robust market for all but the highest price points. As with many of my charts, I’ll be keeping an eye on this one, looking for periods where these two metrics strongly diverge as that may signal a market change, but so far, as we all adjust to the new normal of masks, gloves and an obsession with sanitization, the market just keeps chugging along.

Be healthy everyone!