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Last month we looked at the sales price to list price ratios for sales in Boulder County going back over the last 5 years. I had some caveats in the data and a couple of people asked me some questions on ways to massage the data which led to this month’s second review.
The big caveat last month was the question of concessions, which thankfully has been eliminated due to some better downloading of information out of IRES. The charts in the article last month had sales prices that may or may not have included concessions. This month’s charts and data have sales prices that have had any concessions deducted out of the sales price. Last month, I had some doubt over the number of sales at or over asking price that would have been below asking price once concessions had been deducted. This month, all the data should be as accurate as possible.
Norris Minnick and Paul Dart both had conversations with me about last month’s article and asked how much the ratio of sales price to list price varied with the amount of time it took for the property to go under contract. Back to IRES and some additional data downloading and massaging led to this breakdown of Boulder County sales grouped by the week that the property went under contract compared to original list date. Some interesting tidbits in this chart. In 2015, 45% of the single family homes went under contract in the first week they were on the market. Of the homes that went under contract in the first week, 76.56% ended up closing for a sales price of asking price or better. For every week your home sits on the market, your chance of selling for asking price quickly drops to 20.67% in week five. The stats show a blip in week 6, but those homes may have had price reductions or other changes. Amazingly, of the homes that went under contract in the first week, more homes sold for greater than 2% over asking than the number of homes that sold between asking price and 2% over asking price.
|
Single Family |
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6+ |
|
% of all Sales |
44.89% |
14.28% |
7.59% |
4.60% |
4.23% |
24.41% |
|
Asking price or better |
76.56% |
48.02% |
27.51% |
25.77% |
20.67% |
21.62% |
|
<80% – 95% |
1.76% |
8.30% |
11.15% |
11.04% |
12.67% |
25.78% |
|
95% – 97% |
3.71% |
13.04% |
15.99% |
16.56% |
16.67% |
20.12% |
|
97% – 99% |
9.93% |
22.13% |
33.83% |
34.97% |
32.00% |
24.97% |
|
99% – 100% |
8.05% |
8.50% |
11.52% |
11.66% |
18.00% |
7.51% |
|
100% – 102% |
37.40% |
29.25% |
20.45% |
18.40% |
17.33% |
16.30% |
|
102% – 105% |
20.24% |
10.28% |
4.09% |
4.29% |
1.33% |
2.08% |
|
>105% |
18.92% |
8.50% |
2.97% |
3.07% |
2.00% |
3.24% |
The stats for attached dwellings are even starker and also more confusing. In 2015, 60% of the attached dwellings went under contract in the first week they were on the market. Of the homes that went under contract in the first week, 85.96% ended up closing for a sales price of asking price or better. For every week an attached dwelling sits on the market, the chance of selling for asking price drops in weeks two and three but climbs again in weeks four and five before dropping again in week 6 and on. That stat has me scratching my head trying to come up with an explanation. We saw again that for attached dwellings that went under contract in the first week, substantially more of them sold for greater than 2% over asking than the number of homes that sold between asking price and 2% over asking price. Here are the stats for the attached dwellings.
|
Attached |
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6+ |
|
% of all Sales |
59.68% |
11.27% |
6.36% |
4.19% |
3.97% |
14.52% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Asking price or better |
85.96% |
65.38% |
42.05% |
48.28% |
56.36% |
41.79% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
<80% – 95% |
1.33% |
3.85% |
7.95% |
13.79% |
10.91% |
8.46% |
|
95% – 97% |
1.94% |
7.69% |
14.77% |
10.34% |
7.27% |
16.42% |
|
97% – 99% |
6.54% |
14.74% |
25.00% |
20.69% |
21.82% |
24.88% |
|
99% – 100% |
4.24% |
8.33% |
10.23% |
6.90% |
3.64% |
8.46% |
|
100% – 102% |
32.32% |
32.69% |
27.27% |
34.48% |
45.45% |
29.85% |
|
102% – 105% |
23.61% |
14.74% |
11.36% |
1.72% |
3.64% |
7.96% |
|
>105% |
30.02% |
17.95% |
3.41% |
12.07% |
7.27% |
3.98% |
For many people, the numbers in the charts disappear in a blur of meaninglessness. For those people, I have again tried to capture this data in charts that show the dramatic change between properties that sell the first week and then in the weeks after. Here’s the single family home chart.
Here’s the attached dwelling chart.
You’ll note in both charts the strong breadth of sales that are happening above asking price in the first week and how quickly that strength disappears in later weeks. Attached dwelling sales for over asking price are also stronger than the single family sales over asking price which I assume is a function of the generally lower prices for the attached sales. As in last month’s charts, you’ll continue to see the dip in the number of sales that happen right at 99% of asking price.
Unfortunately, I couldn’t eliminate every caveat and have one in this data too. I haven’t found an easy way to determine if the list date in the downloadable IRES data is the first list date or a re-list date. I would assume that properties that are re-listed and re-exposed to the market with a new MLS # won’t perform as well as a truly new to the market listing.
